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Monday, 01 August 2016 07:16

Paper 2016_07

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Global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis in children: a mathematical modelling study; Dodd PJ, Sismanidis C, Seddon JA; Lancet Infect Dis. 2016 Jun 21.

pii: S1473-3099(16)30132-3.



Although understanding mathematical models is rather a challenge for most of us they can be helpful in estimating numbers where solid inforamtion is missing. This is clearly the case when it comes to epidemiological data on drug resistant tuberculosis in children.

Due to the paucibacillary for of diesease in childhood children are often both underdiagnosed and underreported in national surveillance data. In this paper the authors link data from WHO and other surveillance data on tuberculosis infection prevalence in adults and children with national information on mono and mulitdrug resistance using a Bayesian approach 

This calculations shows that from 850.000 children diagnosed with tuberculosis in 2014 about 25.000 have MDR and 1200 XDR TB. The pool of TB infection in children  is much larger and contains not only approx. 67 million infected children but of those 5 millions with INH resistant, 2 millions with MDR and 100.000 with XDR TB. As the risk of progression from infection to TB disease is much higher in children as it is in adults this should emphasize even more the importance of trials on preventative treatment of TB infection in children.         

(comment by Folke Brinkmann)  


Full article here.

Read 3940 times Last modified on Wednesday, 12 July 2017 17:56